VERDARIO

Numbers method (Study tier)

In short: this section does not predict which numbers “must” appear. It shows which numbers lag or lead archive statistics, and helps you build a set for a ticket or the basket.

1. What the method does

Each of the 49 numbers gets one of three statuses:

From that you get a ready set you can view on layouts, check with a backtest, and send to the basket.

2. Setup (Study)

1. On the left, pick a draw snapshot and archive year (“Archive from year”). Frequencies and methods use the archive from that year.
2. Open the Numbers section.
3. Choose backtest depth: 10 / 20 / 30 draws. Study unlocks all three; the on-screen rating is scaled to a “per 10” baseline.

3. Settings mode

Standard

• Fixed: 16 recommended / 16 not recommended / period step 3 months.
• At the top — a best method card from the precalc for the selected year and depth.

Advanced — unlocked on Study

• Sliders: how many recommended (1–35), how many not recommended (1–24), period step 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 months.
• “Use best parameters” — loads the best OR settings from the precalc.
• Full year-rank tables are available.

4. Six ways to build a set

A. Archive frequency (min / max)

• Green: the rarest in the archive.
• Red: the most frequent.
• Play sets are usually taken from the greens.

B. Cumulative period (from January)

Compares against yearly averages from the selected archive year. Watches pace from January in 3 to 6 month steps.

• Green: by period end they have not yet reached the quota.
• Red: already ahead of the quota (with margin).

C. All recommended (intersection “AND”)

Green only if a number is both rare in the archive and lagging the period.

Used on large sets. The set is smaller and more strictly filtered.

D. All not recommended (intersection “AND”)

Red only if both frequent in the archive and ahead of the period.

Used when you deliberately look at the hottest numbers’ hits.

E. All recommended (union “OR”) — often best in the ranking

Green: rare or lagging the period.

Wider set; in Advanced the system often suggests this one (prediction efficiency up to 150% — 1.5× better than random selection).

F. All not recommended (union “OR”)

Red: frequent or ahead of the period.

Used when you deliberately look at “warm and hot” numbers’ hits.

Study practice:

1) “Best method” card → 2) “Use best parameters” if needed → 3) confirm the set on a layout → 4) to basket.

5. How to view the set (4 layouts)

1. Ticket — grid like a Bonoloto slip.
2. Circle — recommended in the centre, not recommended outside.
3. Trapezoid — recommended on top, not recommended below.
4. Two columns — recommended left, not recommended right.

Number tooltip: how often it appeared and how long ago (on the Ticket tab); in the period method — also the period quota/norm.

6. Where the set goes

1. Under the layout: “Add to basket” — the full current recommended set (or not-recommended if an avoid method is selected).

Study practice: with Study membership, in the basket you can combine pools, scenarios, intersections, Auto Pick, and more.

7. Checking the method (backtest)

On the last draw

Button “Check method on the last draw”.

The method is computed without the last draw and compared to it.

Batch backtest

• depth 1 — visual check only;
• depth 10 — shallow assessment;
• depth 20 — still a small randomness factor in the method;
• depth 30 — practically removes the randomness factor of the method you chose.

Then:

1. Pick depth at the top (Study — up to 30).
2. Set the archive year for training.
3. “Run backtest”.
4. Read the table: date, forecast, hits, draw, 5+C and rating.

8. Typical Study workflow

1. Archive from year + depth 30.
2. Advanced mode.
3. Use best parameters (or set rec/avoid + step manually).
4. Most often — recommended “OR” (if the ranking confirms it).
5. View on Ticket / Circle.
6. Batch backtest on 30 draws.
7. If it looks good — to basket, optionally intersect with a pool/scenario in Compare or Auto Pick.

Important

• Every 6-number combination has the same odds; the method only orders archive statistics and groups statistically equal numbers into sets.
• “Recommended” ≠ “will hit tomorrow” — these are numbers that lag the chosen model.
• Method efficiency — the best set quality signal; checked via backtest results.
• Set rating — another integrated performance score (not tied to archive stats, only to backtest results).

Study gives the full loop: Advanced, depth 30, best parameters from the full archive/method grid, year rankings, and a convenient check before you play.

Curated Pools method

In short: this section does not predict "lucky" numbers and does not change the ticket's odds. It builds a curated set out of the 49 numbers, sized 18–48, using normal-distribution statistics (the ball-draw process itself is a random process with a normal distribution).

The historical archive and the analysis-depth parameters [200, 100, 50] split the roles between long-term and short-term statistics. The short-term statistic is "hotness": how many times a number hit in the last 50, 100, or 200 draws.

1. What the method does

1. Each of the 49 numbers gets a Score from the archive (foundation + local hotness).
2. A dome is built from the scores (a band around the mean ± k·σ on a normal distribution).
3. The dome's width is tuned so that exactly N numbers fall inside (pool size 18–48).
4. This set can be viewed, backtested, and sent to the basket.

The odds of any 6-number combination are the same. Only the set's composition changes, and the "crowd" you share the prize with if the set hits.

Algorithm picture (in the Analytics tab): "Dome analysis" (dome_dashboard_{size}_{lang}.png).

2. Setup

1. On the left, pick a draw snapshot and, if needed, the archive from year in the sidebar.
2. Open the Curated Pools section.
3. At the top, choose the backtest depth: 10 / 20 / 30.

- 10 (tier 1 / guest)

- 20 (tier 2)

- 30 (Explorer tier)

The on-screen rating is scaled to a "per 10" baseline.

3. How a number's score is computed (the set algorithm)

The whole historical archive

The full available draw array (from the very first draw to the one being analyzed) drives the number's fundamental metrics. It feeds 3 of the 4 components of the final score:

Pair frequency is a "synergy" indicator for a number. It rewards balls that don't just hit on their own, but regularly show up alongside other frequently appearing numbers.

Local "hotness" over the last 50–200 draws

Short-term statistic: how many times a number hit in the last 50, 100, or 200 draws (recent_frequencies, weight 2.5).

Final Score

Each of the 49 numbers gets a score as the sum of weighted, normalized (÷Max) coefficients:

Score = 3.0 · (Freq_overall / Max) + 2.5 · (Freq_recent / Max) + 1.5 · (Freq_pair / Max) + 1.0 · (Skip / Max)

The dome (normal distribution)

The mean μ and standard deviation σ are computed over all 49 scores. Numbers whose score falls within the band [μ − k·σ, μ + k·σ] enter the set. The coefficient k is tuned via the golden-section method so the band contains exactly N numbers (the pool size). If there are slightly too many/few, they are trimmed or topped up by score ranking.

This is exactly the band shown in the "Dome analysis" picture.

What's the practical difference between 50, 100, and 200?

4. All section features (by access level)

A. Backtest depth 10 / 20 / 30

Picker at the top of the section.

(tier 1 → 10 · tier 2 → up to 20 · Explorer tier → up to 30)

B. "Archive from year (precalc)" slider

The archive start year for the "best pool" rankings. The precalc step is usually 10 years.

(the widget is visible to everyone; useful meaning and "honest" values from tier 1; for guests the metrics/tables are often blurred)

C. "Best pool (out of 28–42) by archive year" card

Shows the best result by set size. A larger set doesn't always (but very often does) give higher prediction efficiency.

(available from guest level with partial blur on table results. Full information from tier 1)

D. "Use best size and depth" button

Fills the UI with the best size and RECENT depth from the precalc.

(tier 1)

E. "Best pools per each precalc year" summary

Table: year → size, recent, rating, efficiency, 6 / 5 / 5+C.

(tier 2; for guest/tier 1 — structure + blur)

F. Top-3 pools by year

The three best size×RECENT combinations for the selected year.

(tier 1)

G. Full ranking table "Top pools for this year" (expander)

The extended list of precalc candidates.

(tier 2)

H. Pool-size slider 48…18

Choosing N numbers in the set.

• Guest: only 18–19 and 43–48
• All sizes 18–48 (tier 1 and above)

The "Tier: Open / I / II / Archive" label on the size is a marketing tag for the set style, not a membership gate.

I. RECENT analysis depth (50 / 100 / 200)

How many recent draws are heavily weighted in the score as local "hotness" (see the table above).

(available together with the chosen size; sizes themselves — see H)

J. Metric cards for the selected size

Size, combination coverage, 6-hit efficiency, hits6/N at the chosen BT depth.

(for the allowed size — everyone; efficiency = Lift×100%, 100% ≈ a random set of the same size)

K. "Pool numbers" tab

The balls of the current set.

(within the allowed size — everyone)

L. "Add to basket"

Sends the current set.

• Guest: limit of 1 set in the basket
• tier 1+: several sets

M. "Analytics" tab

• Backtest rating + per-draw table

(tier 1 / any paid tier; for guests rating/hits are often blurred)

• Dome expander — a PNG of the normal distribution of scores with the selection zone

(if the file exists in the snapshot — it can be shown to everyone)

• Table from the pool file: Distance / Recent / 6 / 5 / 5+C

N. Related tools outside the Curated Pools screen

Auto Pick, intersections/unions, the rich basket — layered on top of pools.

(Explorer tier)

5. "Best pool by year" precalc (a separate loop)

After generating sets, the system separately compares which size and which RECENT worked best on history:

• Only sizes 28–42 take part in the ranking (not the extreme 18 and 48).
• Sweep: size × RECENT × archive start year (~10-year step).
• Walk-back backtest with 10 / 20 / 30 slices.
• Rating: 6→500, 5→100, 4→10, 3→1, then normalized to a base of 10.
• Efficiency: (hits6/N) / C(size,6)/C(49,6) × 100%.
• Sort order: rating → efficiency → hits6 → hits5 → smaller size.

That's why the card is called "best out of 28–42".

6. Typical scenarios

Guest

1. Size from the available zone (18–19 or 43–48).
2. RECENT 50 / 100 / 200 (see the difference table).
3. Numbers tab → optionally 1 set to the basket.
4. Year rankings — showcase (blurred).

Tier 1

1. BT depth 10.
2. Precalc year → best-pool card → "Use best size and depth".
3. Compare the Top-3.
4. Numbers → to the basket.
5. Analytics: backtest table + dome.

Tier 2

Same, plus full year tables + BT 20.

Explorer tier

Same, plus BT 30 → basket → Auto Pick / Compare / intersections with the pool.

Important to remember

• A pool does not make a combination "more likely".
• Score and the dome order archive statistics on a normal distribution — this is not a forecast of tomorrow's draw.
• Backtest efficiency > 100% ≠ a guarantee for tomorrow; it's history relative to a random set of the same size.
• The precalc ranking covers only 28–42; check the extreme sizes separately via live/file BT.
• Pair frequency rewards "synergy" (numbers appearing together), not solo frequency.
• The dome picture is a visual of the Score → μ±kσ → N-number set steps.

Scenario Method

In short: this section does not predict "lucky" numbers and does not change the ticket's odds. It shows which phase the archive is in (Stability / Chaos), which scenarios best match the current phase, and helps you choose a set of balls for the basket or for comparison.

1. How scenarios are derived (in short)

The detailed scenario formula is proprietary Verdario information.

At its core is an analysis of the stability of the RMSD movement (root-mean-square deviation) of each number's and combination's probability toward zero: how steadily (or chaotically) the distribution behaves across the draw history.

Based on this framework, the system builds 40+ scenarios in the Stable / Short / Med families and determines the current phase: Stability or Chaos. If a phase persists for a long time, the status can become FROZEN (the phase hasn't changed since the stated draw).

2. What the section does

1. Shows the current phase and freeze status.
2. Ranks scenarios by cost efficiency, prediction efficiency, and backtest rating.
3. Provides sets of balls of various sizes and lets you add them to the basket.
4. At Explorer tier — intersections and unions of independent scenario families.

The odds of any 6-number combination are the same. A scenario only orders archive statistics within the framework of the selected phase model.

3. Setup

1. On the left, pick a draw snapshot.
2. Open the Scenario Method.
3. At the top, choose the backtest depth: 10 / 20 / 30.

- 10 (tier 1 / guest)

- 20 (tier 2)

- 30 (Explorer tier)

The on-screen rating is scaled to a "per 10" baseline.

4. All section features (by access level)

A. Phase status bar

CHAOS / STABILITY and, if applicable, FROZEN + draw date/number.

(everyone)

B. Backtest depth 10 / 20 / 30

(tier 1 → 10 · tier 2 → up to 20 · Explorer tier → up to 30)

C. Summary cards

How many scenarios were analyzed, frozen at which draw, draws in the archive, backtest window.

(everyone)

D. "Best forecast" tab

Scenario ranking by archive year, best set, metrics, to basket.

• Guest: mainly the 5th place of the Stable+Short families is open; top 1…4 are often blurred.
• Full top and the open 1st result — from tier 1.
• The Med family — from tier 2.

E. "Archive from year (precalc)" slider and year tables

Best scenario by precalc years, summary, full ranking.

(tier 2)

F. Top-3 scenarios by year

(tier 1)

G. "To basket" button/action from the best set

• Guest: limit of 1 set
• tier 1+: several sets

H. "By ball count (cost)" and "By ball count (prediction)" tabs

Best scenario for the chosen ball-set size; top by size.

• Guest: sizes 48, 47, 24
• All sizes — from tier 1

I. Backtest table and buying strategies (full pool / GA / Bagel)

(tier 1)

J. "All scenarios" tab

Full list sortable by prediction/cost efficiency, rating, ball count, hits.

(tier 1; for guests the table is often blurred)

K. "Stability zones" tab

Phase description + chart of the last ~100 draws.

(everyone, if the chart file exists in the snapshot)

L. Intersections (∩)

Combinations of the Short ∩ Med ∩ STAB families (and ±1 ball variants), top 10, metrics vs parents.

(Explorer tier)

M. Intersection (5) — target of 5 matches

(Explorer tier)

N. Unions (∪)

(Explorer tier)

5. Key metrics

6. Typical scenarios

Guest

1. Check the phase and freeze status.
2. On "Best forecast" — the open 5th place of Stable+Short.
3. "By ball count" — sizes 48 / 47 / 24.
4. "Stability zones".
5. Optionally — 1 set to the basket.

Tier 1

1. BT depth 10.
2. Open 1st result + Top-3 + all ball-set sizes.
3. "All scenarios", backtest, buying strategies.
4. Sets to the basket.

Tier 2

Same, plus the Med family + precalc years + BT 20.

Explorer tier

Same, plus BT 30 + Intersections / ∩5 / Unions tabs → basket / Compare / Auto Pick.

Important to remember

• A scenario does not make a combination "more likely".
• The scenario calculation details are closed (a proprietary model based on the stability of the movement of probability RMSD toward zero).
• Backtest efficiency > 100% ≠ a guarantee for tomorrow's draw.
• Check the rating and efficiency at the chosen backtest depth; the rating in the UI is normalized to a "per 10" baseline.
• The Study tools ∩/∪ look for agreement or union among independent families — a separate layer on top of single scenarios.

Method Comparison

In short: this section places Verdario's independent approaches — the Pool, Scenarios, Recommendations (Numbers), and (at Explorer tier) scenario intersections — side by side and helps you assemble a consensus set. It does not change the ticket's odds and does not predict tomorrow's draw.

1. A common denominator for comparison

Raw hits (how many times a set matched all 6) cannot be compared directly between methods with different set sizes and different logic.

That's why the interface reduces the criteria to one denominator:

This way you compare quality relative to randomness and depth, not "who scored more 6-matches just because the set is bigger."

2. What's compared

1. Pool — a curated set from the frequency model (size 18–48).
2. Scenarios — a set from the Stable/Chaos phase model.
3. Recommendations (Numbers) — a set from the numbers board (Standard / Advanced).
4. Scenario intersections — agreement among the Short ∩ Med ∩ STAB families (Explorer tier).

Each method builds its own set independently. Agreement between several methods is stronger than a single vote.

3. Number consensus

Consensus — numbers that landed in two or more of the selected methods at once.

The block shows how many numbers are "supported" by at least two independent loops. Next, you choose a combination of methods (e.g. 1–2, 1–3, 2–3, 1–2–3; on Study also with intersections) and a set-assembly mode:

Intersection (AND)

The set includes only numbers that appear in all of the selected methods.

The set is smaller and stricter.

When it's appropriate: the methods correlate weakly / are independent by nature — then agreement is informative: consensus is not "cheap", and the AND core is stronger as a quality filter. Also useful when you want a narrower set for a ticket or for a further intersection in the basket.

Union (OR)

The set includes numbers that appear in at least one of the selected methods.

The set is wider.

When it's appropriate: you need broader coverage and complementary signals (different viewpoints) — OR gathers numbers that a strict AND would otherwise cut out. Also useful when you deliberately want to widen the pool before a purchase strategy.

Practical rule of thumb:

• weak correlation / independent methods → intersection is especially meaningful (agreement actually means something);
• need wider coverage → union;
• strong correlation → AND and OR add little over a single method (the sets already largely overlap);
• in any case, always check the set with a backtest (see below).

4. All section features (by access level)

A. Comparison size (size strip)

• Guest: 48, 47, 18
• All sizes — from tier 1

B. "Pool" card

Rating / efficiency / 6-match / to basket.

(metrics from tier 1; often blurred for guests)

C. "Scenarios" card

Rating, prediction efficiency, hits — available to guests within the open scenario loop.

D. "Recommendations (Numbers)" card

Standard for everyone; the best Advanced parameters — from tier 1.

E. "Scenario intersections" card

The fourth comparison column.

(Explorer tier)

F. Backtest chart (method comparison)

Cumulative rating / hits over recent draws.

(tier 1)

G. Number consensus + method selector + AND/OR

(guest+; extended combinations with intersections — Explorer tier)

H. Consensus balls → "To basket"

• Guest: limit of 1 set
• tier 1+: several sets

I. Consensus backtest (table)

(tier 1)

5. Backtesting the resulting set — mandatory

Consensus and AND/OR are assembly, not a guarantee. The resulting set needs to be put through a backtest.

Important: look at a depth of 20 draws or more.

• 10 — a surface-level estimate; the method's randomness is still noticeable.
• 20+ — shows more reliably whether the set holds up in quality relative to chance.
• 30 (Explorer tier in adjacent sections) — cuts out the random factor even more strictly.

On the Comparison screen itself, the table/chart is often computed on a fixed window (often the last 10) for a quick check. For a serious check, use the depth of 20/30 available to you in related sections (Scenarios / Pools / Numbers), and look at efficiency and rating, not just raw 6-matches.

6. Typical scenarios

Guest

1. Size 48 / 47 / 18.
2. A scenario card + consensus AND or OR.
3. A set to the basket (1 pc).
4. Pool/recommendation metrics and the chart — showcase (blur).

Tier 1

1. All sizes.
2. Three cards open + chart + consensus backtest.
3. Assemble the consensus → check it with a backtest (aim for a depth of ≥20 in the available tools).

Tier 2

Same, plus a deeper backtest in related sections (up to 20).

Explorer tier

Same, plus the 4th scenario-intersections card + extended consensus + depth up to 30.

Important to remember

• Comparison reduces methods to a common denominator (prediction efficiency / normalized rating).
• Consensus reinforces numbers where independent models agreed.
• Intersection — especially when methods correlate weakly / a strict agreement filter is needed.
• Union — when you need wider coverage from complementary methods.
• Check any assembled set with a backtest, preferably on ≥20 draws.
• No consensus makes a 6-number combination more likely.

Auto Pick

In short: Auto Pick is an Explorer (Study) tool. It does not invent new numbers — it gathers already computed sets from other sections and ranks the best three by your criterion order and weights. It does not change ticket odds and does not predict tomorrow's draw.

1. Why this section exists

Verdario has many independent loops: Pools, Scenarios, Numbers, intersections/unions. Comparing dozens of precalc variants by hand is slow.

Auto Pick does one job:

collect candidates → normalize metrics → weight them → show the top 3 with a live backtest and an “Add to basket” button.

2. Access

Without Study the section is a showcase: it shows the tool exists but does not run scoring.

3. Where candidates come from

Auto Pick reads precalc (and session combine results when present) at the chosen backtest depth:

1. Pools — curated sets by archive year.
2. Scenarios (signals) — Stable/Chaos phase-model sets.
3. Board · Standard — numbers-board recommendation methods.
4. Board · Advanced / Rec OR — advanced board modes.
5. Intersections (intersect) — scenario-family agreements (∩).
6. Intersect5 — variants aimed at exact 5-hits.
7. Unions (union) — wider combinations of loops (∪).

Only sets sized 18–48 that fall inside your from–to range are kept.

If there are no candidates — usually precalc is missing for that depth/size, or the range is too narrow.

4. The three scoring metrics

Every candidate is compared on the same three axes:

Before weighting, each metric is min–max normalized across the current candidate pool. Then your criterion order and weights are applied.

5. All section features

A. Set size from / to

Range 18–48. Only candidates inside this window are kept.

B. Backtest depth

10 / 20 / 30 (by subscription; Study → up to 30).

Depth chooses which precalc slice is read and which live backtest is drawn under the card.

C. Criterion order

Three presets:

1. Pred. efficiency → Rating → Cost efficiency
2. Cost efficiency → Pred. efficiency → Rating
3. Rating → Pred. efficiency → Cost efficiency

Order = axis priority when scoring.

D. Weights for 1st / 2nd / 3rd criterion

Default 1.00 / 0.50 / 0.25.

Weights are normalized at score time (they need not sum to 1). Zero on an axis disables its contribution.

E. “Pick best” button

Collects candidates, computes scores, shows up to three unique sets (identical number sets are deduplicated).

F. Result card

• source label and archive year;
• set balls;
• pred. efficiency / rating / cost efficiency / Score;
• walk-back backtest table: for each draw the prediction is rebuilt from data available at that step (pool / scenario / board / ∩∪), not the final set copied onto every day;
• “Add to basket”.

6. Typical Study workflow

1. Open Auto Pick.
2. Set a size range, e.g. 24–40.
3. Depth 20 or 30 (more stable than 10 for ranking).
4. Choose criterion order for your goal:

- beat chance → prioritize pred. efficiency;

- watch set-size cost → prioritize cost efficiency;

- want a stable integrated signal → prioritize rating.

1. Keep default weights or boost the first axis (e.g. 1.0 / 0.3 / 0.2).
2. Pick best → compare the top 3 → send the best set to the basket.
3. In the Basket build a ticket / system — remembering: a 6-number combination keeps the same odds.

7. How it relates to other sections

Auto Pick does not replace reading the source sections: it speeds selection when precalc is already computed.

Important to remember

• Auto Pick requires Explorer (Study).
• It ranks already computed sets — it is not a secret new method.
• Score depends on your criterion order and weights — another preset yields another top 3.
• Do not look at Score alone: check pred. efficiency, rating and the backtest table.
• Depth ≥20 is more stable than 10.
• No auto-pick makes a 6-number combination more likely.