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Scenario Method

In short: this section does not predict "lucky" numbers and does not change the ticket's odds. It shows which phase the archive is in (Stability / Chaos), which scenarios best match the current phase, and helps you choose a set of balls for the basket or for comparison.

1. How scenarios are derived (in short)

The detailed scenario formula is proprietary Verdario information.

At its core is an analysis of the stability of the RMSD movement (root-mean-square deviation) of each number's and combination's probability toward zero: how steadily (or chaotically) the distribution behaves across the draw history.

Based on this framework, the system builds 40+ scenarios in the Stable / Short / Med families and determines the current phase: Stability or Chaos. If a phase persists for a long time, the status can become FROZEN (the phase hasn't changed since the stated draw).

2. What the section does

  1. Shows the current phase and freeze status.
  2. Ranks scenarios by cost efficiency, prediction efficiency, and backtest rating.
  3. Provides sets of balls of various sizes and lets you add them to the basket.
  4. At Explorer tier — intersections and unions of independent scenario families.

The odds of any 6-number combination are the same. A scenario only orders archive statistics within the framework of the selected phase model.

3. Setup

  1. On the left, pick a draw snapshot.
  2. Open the Scenario Method.
  3. At the top, choose the backtest depth: 10 / 20 / 30.

- 10 (tier 1 / guest)

- 20 (tier 2)

- 30 (Explorer tier)

The on-screen rating is scaled to a "per 10" baseline.

4. All section features (by access level)

A. Phase status bar

CHAOS / STABILITY and, if applicable, FROZEN + draw date/number.

(everyone)

B. Backtest depth 10 / 20 / 30

(tier 1 → 10 · tier 2 → up to 20 · Explorer tier → up to 30)

C. Summary cards

How many scenarios were analyzed, frozen at which draw, draws in the archive, backtest window.

(everyone)

D. "Best forecast" tab

Scenario ranking by archive year, best set, metrics, to basket.

E. "Archive from year (precalc)" slider and year tables

Best scenario by precalc years, summary, full ranking.

(tier 2)

F. Top-3 scenarios by year

(tier 1)

G. "To basket" button/action from the best set

H. "By ball count (cost)" and "By ball count (prediction)" tabs

Best scenario for the chosen ball-set size; top by size.

I. Backtest table and buying strategies (full pool / GA / Bagel)

(tier 1)

J. "All scenarios" tab

Full list sortable by prediction/cost efficiency, rating, ball count, hits.

(tier 1; for guests the table is often blurred)

K. "Stability zones" tab

Phase description + chart of the last ~100 draws.

(everyone, if the chart file exists in the snapshot)

L. Intersections (∩)

Combinations of the Short ∩ Med ∩ STAB families (and ±1 ball variants), top 10, metrics vs parents.

(Explorer tier)

M. Intersection (5) — target of 5 matches

(Explorer tier)

N. Unions (∪)

(Explorer tier)

5. Key metrics

MetricMeaning
PhaseStability or Chaos
FROZENthe phase hasn't changed since the stated draw
Prediction efficiencyLift×100%; 100% ≈ a random set of the same size
Cost efficiencyprize estimate relative to ticket cost
Ratingintegrated backtest score (baseline of 10 draws)
hits 6 / 5 / 4hits at the backtest depth
Δ vs best parentfor ∩/∪: improvement over the best of the source scenarios

6. Typical scenarios

Guest

  1. Check the phase and freeze status.
  2. On "Best forecast" — the open 5th place of Stable+Short.
  3. "By ball count" — sizes 48 / 47 / 24.
  4. "Stability zones".
  5. Optionally — 1 set to the basket.

Tier 1

  1. BT depth 10.
  2. Open 1st result + Top-3 + all ball-set sizes.
  3. "All scenarios", backtest, buying strategies.
  4. Sets to the basket.

Tier 2

Same, plus the Med family + precalc years + BT 20.

Explorer tier

Same, plus BT 30 + Intersections / ∩5 / Unions tabs → basket / Compare / Auto Pick.

Important to remember

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